Change time estimation uncertainty in nonlinear dynamical systems with applications to COVID‐19

The impact that each individual non‐pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) had on the spread rate of COVID‐19 is difficult to estimate, since several NPIs were implemented in rapid succession in most countries. In this article, we analyze the detectability of sudden changes in a parameter of nonlinear dynamical systems, which could be used to represent NPIs or mutations of the virus, in the presence of measurement noise. Specifically, by taking an agnostic approach, we provide necessary conditions for when the best possible unbiased estimator is able to isolate the effect of a sudden change in a model parameter, by using the Hammersley–Chapman–Robbins (HCR) lower bound. Several simplifications to the calculation of the HCR lower bound are given, which depend on the amplitude of the sudden change and the dynamics of the system. We further define the concept of the most informative sample based on the largest ℓ2 distance between two output trajectories, which is a good indicator of when the HCR lower bound converges. These results are thereafter used to analyze the susceptible‐infected‐removed model. For instance, we show that performing analysis using the number of recovered/deceased, as opposed to the cumulative number of infected, may be an inferior signal to use since sudden changes are fundamentally more difficult to estimate and seem to require more samples. Finally, these results are verified by simulations and applied to real data from the spread of COVID‐19 in France. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of International Journal of Robust & Nonlinear Control is the property of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Lockdown time, time loops, and the crisis of the future

Amidst the Covid-19 lockdowns of 2020 and 2021 in the United States and United Kingdom, a fantasy took hold that life under lockdown was like living in a time loop. The time loop quickly became the genre of the moment. And yet, however "timely" they appeared, most of the time-loop films and series du jour had been conceived and produced before the pandemic. Why and how did they become retrofitted to the temporality of the pandemic? To answer this question, we delve into the split time of the time-loop film. We argue that, in its deferred arrival, the time loop became a fantastical solution to the problems of loneliness, stuckness, and the future that the pandemic stoked but did not originate. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Accessing Bereavement Support: A Secondary Analysis of Uk Commission on Bereavement (Ukcb) Evidence

Introduction There are significant social and healthcare inequalities in the provision and access to bereavement services. With the increase in deaths and experiences of bereavement, the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the need to address this crucial area of psychological, social and healthcare support. The UKCB was set up to respond to the challenges of the pandemic by hearing about the lived experience of bereavement. Aims The study aimed to draw on UKCB data to analyse the experiences of those bereaved in the last five years to explore how age, gender, ethnicity, and sexual orientation were associated with inequalities relating to access, effectiveness, satisfaction, and delivery of services. Methods An in-depth qualitative thematic secondary analysis was conducted of free text data from 1119 individual and 130 organisational UKCB survey responses. Results Age Those over 50 reported not wanting to cause a fuss, saw seeking help as a weakness and were reluctant to access digital support. Family pressures, lack of time, and perceptions of less support available for younger people were reported in respondents under 50 years. Ethnicity: The value of support was compromised where there were language barriers and a lack of cultural and religious understanding. Sexuality: LBGTQ + respondents valued non-judgemental understanding and a feeling of belonging from support where this is lacking on a wider level. Gender: Men leaned toward a preference for more informal and practical support. In more formal support they found difficulties in talking with those unconnected with family and friends. Conclusions Age, gender, ethnicity, or sexual orientation affected many respondents' access to formal and informal bereavement support as well as the effectiveness, satisfaction, and delivery of services. Impact The study contributed recommendations which add to those of the UKCB, that can help to reduce inequalities in effective bereavement support.

Innovation and creativity in a time of crisis: A perspective of small tourism enterprises from an emerging destination

Disasters and crises do not only affect tourism enterprises detrimentally but can also prompt business innovation and creativity. This positive outlook is under-studied although it can aid in understanding the speed of business recovery, especially among smaller tourism enterprises in remote and resource-scarce destinations where external assistance is limited. This study examines innovation and creativity among tourism entrepreneurs in Lombok (Indonesia), an emerging destination in Southeast Asia, through the prism of two crises, the 2018 earthquake and COVID-19. Interviews with small-sized tourism entrepreneurs (n = 21) reveal the innovative dynamic capability as a critical factor for crisis-driven business innovation. This capability is determined by generic factors, such as social capital and knowledge, but also destination-specific factors, such as local cultural values. The important role of time is also showcased: prolonged crises encourage tourism entrepreneurs to innovate sooner, while short-lived disastrous events prescribe a cautious approach to innovation. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd

Subjective experience of time in dementia with Lewy bodies during COVID-19 lockdown.

Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) is a neurodegenerative disease characterized by cognitive, behavioral and motor symptoms and has a more challenging clinical management and poorer prognosis compared to other forms of dementia. The experience of lockdown leads to negative psychological outcomes for fragile people such as elderly with dementia, particularly for DLB, causing a worsening of cognitive and neuropsychiatric symptoms. Since an individual's feeling of time passage is strongly related to their cognitive and emotional state, it is conceivable to expect alterations of this construct in people with DLB during such a difficult period. We therefore assessed the subjective experience of the passage of time for present and past time intervals (Subjective Time Questionnaire, STQ) during the lockdown due to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in 22 patients with DLB (17 of which were re-tested in a post-lockdown period) and compared their experience with that of 14 caregivers with similar age. Patients showed a significantly slower perception of present and past time spent under lockdown restrictions. We argue that these alterations might be related to the distinctive features of DLB and their exacerbation recorded by the patients' caregivers during the period of lockdown, though our results show that the patients' experience of time passage in a post-lockdown period remained similarly slow. Overall, we show an impairment of the subjective perception of time passage in DLB tested during the COVID-19 lockdown. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12144-021-01811-7.

Game over? Perceptions of children's and adolescents' play and leisure during the COVID-19 lockdown

The restrictions adopted due to the COVID-19 health crisis established a new normality in the lives of children and adolescents in Spain. This study aims to explore the perception of adult caregivers and children and adolescents (from now CAs) regarding time, space, company, activities, screen time, and those aspects missed and desired during the lockdown. To do so, two online questionnaires were designed and distributed through foundations, schools and social networks. The sample consists of 270 adult caregivers and 126 CAs. The results show changes in play routines from the perspective of adults and CAs, who indicated that they: (1) had more leisure and play time, (2) had used various spaces at home, (3) had mostly played with their families, (4) had mostly carried out digital activities, (5) had seen an increase in their screen time and, lastly, (6) had missed and desired social interaction with their peers outside. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Psychological Time during the COVID-19 Lockdown: Canadian Data

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated measures have affected routines and mental well-being of people around the world. Research also shows distorted time perception during lockdowns which can partially be explained by compromised well-being. The present study investigates Canadians’ temporal experience and mental well-being at two periods of national lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic (spring 2020: n = 66;beginning of 2021: n = 100). As results indicate, the only difference between these periods on the investigated variables was the strictness of lockdown measures. Our findings show associations between anxiety, depression, confinement indicators, and time perception (future temporal distance, passage of time judgments). Stepwise regression models indicated that depression and strictness of measures predicted the impression that the next week appeared farther away;one’s loneliness appraisal was associated with a perceived slower time flow. Our findings give a preliminary idea about time perception and mental well-being in the Canadian lockdowns. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Timing & Time Perception is the property of Brill Academic Publishers and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Changes in Subjective Time and Self during Meditation.

This study examined the effects of meditative states in experienced meditators on present-moment awareness, subjective time, and self-awareness while assessing meditation-induced changes in heart-rate variability and breathing rate. A sample of 22 experienced meditators who practiced meditation techniques stressing awareness of the present moment (average 20 years of practice) filled out subjective scales pertaining to sense of time and the bodily self and accomplished a metronome task as an operationalization of present-moment awareness before and after a 20 min meditation session (experimental condition) and a 20 min reading session (control condition) according to a within-subject design. A mixed pattern of increased sympathetic and parasympathetic activity was found during meditation regarding heart-rate measures. Breathing intervals were prolonged during meditation. Participants perceived their body boundaries as less salient during meditation than while reading the story; they also felt time passed more quickly and they paid less attention to time during meditation. No significant differences between conditions became apparent for the metronome task. This is probably the first quantitative study to show how the experience of time during a meditation session is altered together with the sense of the bodily self.

Time estimation and passage of time judgment predict eating behaviors during COVID-19 lockdown.

Poor eating habits often lead to health concerns. While mental health conditions such as stress and anxiety have been linked as predictors for eating behaviors, cognitive factors may also contribute to eating practices during the early stages of the mandatory COVID-19 lockdown. In the current study, participants responded to a survey that asked them to judge the passing of time (PoTJ) and to produce short intervals (via a time production task) as an index of the internal clock speed. Additionally, they responded to questions about snacking frequency and the tendency to overeat during lockdown. We observed that those who judged time to pass slowly also reported a greater tendency to snack and overeat during the pandemic. Additional analysis also revealed that the effect of PoTJ on snacking is moderated by the internal clock speed such that those who felt time was passing by slowly, and in combination with a faster internal clock (as indexed by shorter duration production), had a greater tendency to snack. The results suggest that different aspects of temporal cognition play potential roles in influencing different types of eating behaviors. Our findings therefore have implications for eating disorders, along with the potential of time-based intervention or behavioral modification approaches.

The impact of a global pandemic on undergraduate learning experiences: One year later.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We examined students perceived changes in their attention, motivation, affect, and time perception following the implementation of the pandemic-related restrictions. METHODS: One year after the restrictions were implemented, we surveyed students' (N = 153) perceived changes in their experiences relative to their remembered pre- and early-pandemic ones, as well as their predicted future changes. RESULTS: Consistent with prior work, when students compared their current experiences (March/April 2021) to their remembered pre-pandemic ones, they perceived increases in mind-wandering, technology use, external distraction, and negative affect, as well as decreases in focus, flow, motivation, and time perception. Although somewhat attenuated, students also noted changes in these behaviours when comparing the memory of their early pandemic experiences to their current experiences. Finally, they further anticipated negative changes in their future experiences, possibly due to continued pandemic-related isolation. IMPLICATIONS: Reducing students' sense of isolation might improve their cognitive and affective experiences.

« L’effet élastique » : l’évolution du rapport au temps des entrepreneurs pendant la crise de la Covid-19

Cet article a pour objectif de comprendre comment les entrepreneurs de profils variés traversent la crise de la Covid-19 au Québec. En mobilisant une approche processuelle, et à partir de l’analyse qualitative de 30 entrevues, notre étude fait ressortir une séquence en trois phases, reflétant une évolution du rapport au temps des entrepreneurs, que nous avons nommé « l’effet élastique ». Les résultats identifient ensuite les thèmes dominants qui caractérisent chaque phase vécue. Notre étude offre plusieurs contributions importantes. Elle montre que le rapport au temps joue un rôle important lorsque les entrepreneurs passent à travers la crise et souligne ainsi l’importance du facteur humain. De plus, par l’identification des trois phases successives, l’étude mène au constat qu’il y a une synchronicité dans ce rapport au temps suite à l’éclatement de la crise, et ce malgré certaines variations individuelles et contextuelles qui teintent les réalités entrepreneuriales. Au niveau pratique, reconnaître et anticiper l’effet élastique pourrait permettre une meilleure préparation et gestion de futures crises externes majeures. Enfin, les dimensions de contexte identifiées peuvent être intégrées dans des savoirs transmis par les accompagnateurs à l’entrepreneuriat, pour mieux soutenir les entrepreneurs en situation de crise.Alternate :This paper aims to provide a better understanding of how entrepreneurs with diverse profiles and located in Quebec go through the Covid-19 crisis. We suggest a qualitative case study (30 interviews) and adopt a processual lens. As a result of the analysis, a sequence of three phases emerges. This sequence describes the evolution of the entrepreneurs’ time perception which we call the elasticity effect. The findings of this study then identify the dominant themes which characterize each phase which entrepreneurs experience. Hence, this study suggests several contributions. First and foremost, it shows that time perception plays an important role when going through a crisis which also highlights the human factor. Moreover, through the identification of three successive phases, the study leads to the assumption that despite certain individual and contextual variations which tinge the entrepreneurial process, there is a synchronicity of time perception after the outbreak of the crisis. These findings lead to an important practical contribution: the recognition and anticipation of the “elasticity effect” could allow a better preparation and management of future major external crises. Finally, the identified contextual factors can become a part of knowledge which is transferred by entrepreneurial supporters in order to better support entrepreneurs in times of crisis.Alternate :Este artículo tiene como objetivo comprender los eventos y elementos contextuales que caracterizan el proceso emprendedor durante la crisis de Covid-19, tal como lo experimentan los emprendedores en Quebec. Al utilizar un enfoque procesual, nuestro análisis cualitativo de 30 entrevistas revela una secuencia en tres fases. Esta secuencia refleja que los emprendedores tienen una relación particular con el tiempo, que evoluciona, y que la hemos llamado el efecto elástico. Los resultados luego identifican los temas dominantes que caracterizan cada fase vivida por los emprendedores. Nuestro estudio ofrece varias contribuciones. En primer lugar, el estudio muestra que la percepción del tiempo juega un rol importante cuando se atraviesa una crisis, lo que también subraya la importancia del factor humano. Además, a través de la identificación de tres fases sucesivas, el estudio lleva a suponer que a pesar de ciertas variaciones individuales y contextuales que tiñen el proceso emprendedor, existe una sincronicidad de la percepción del tiempo después del estallido de la crisis. A nivel práctico, reconocer y anticipar el «efecto elástico» podría permitir una mejor preparación y gestión de futuras crisis externas importantes. En segundo lugar, la dimensiones contextuales identificadas pueden integrarse en el conocimiento transmitido a través del apoyo empresarial, para orientar mejor a los emprendedores en situaciones de crisis.

Time Perception and Time Management during COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown

Our perception of time changes with age, but it also depends on our emotional state and physical conditions. It is not necessarily mental disorders that distort human's time perception, but threatening or dangerous situations, induced fear or sadness trigger psychological defensive mechanism that speeds up or slows down the rate of the internal clock. Fear distorted time is caused by higher (slower) pulse rate, increased (decreased) blood pressure and muscular contraction. The given research is aimed at improving our understanding of the mechanism that controls this sense, opening the way for new forms of time management. Our perception of time is dependent on our emotional state, temporal distortion caused by emotion is not the result of a malfunction in the internal biological clock, but, on the contrary, an illustration of its remarkable ability to adapt to events around us. Development of time sensitivity is very important for timing, time perception, time-management and procrastination problem solution.

Exploring Challenges and Opportunities in Interprofessional Collaboration of Health Workers during COVID-19 Pandemic at the Public Health Center in Bantul Regency

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic is of special concern in all parts of the world, including Indonesia. The number of active cases also continues to increase in most provinces in Indonesia, especially in the Special Region of Yogyakarta. This condition requires health workers to collaborate well in suppressing and handling COVID-19 patients. AIM: The aims of this study were to find out how collaboration occurs between health workers in handling COVID-19. This study identifies opportunities and challenges for Interprofessional Collaboration (IPC) health workers at the Primary Health Center of Bantul Regency. METHODS: The design of this study was a cross-sectional study. We used the purposive sampling method to recruit participants. This study was followed by 200 participants who were health workers at the Primary Health Center in Bantul Regency. We used a questionnaire as the instrument. The questionnaire consists of four dimensions of IPC such as knowledge, collaboration, service, and the role of a pharmacist. The data obtained were statistically analyzed using Chi-square and Spearman. RESULTS: The result showed that IPC health worker at Health Primary Center of Bantul was categorized as good (45%). However, IPC at the Health Primary Center is still not optimal. There were top three obstacles in collaborating, namely, lack of time, perception of complicated bureaucracy, and lack of trust from health workers about their knowledge and skill.Based on spearman test p-value for age, gender, education level, years of service, occupation were 0.764;0,732;0.808;0.189;0.582;0.746. This result showed that the sociodemographic characteristics of the participants did not significantly affect the IPC (P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The main key in practicing IPC was building a good work team, good communication and relationship, responsibility for each other’s, keep learning from each other and being critical, and maintaining the ethics of each profession. Thus, effective and efficient collaboration will be established.

Disrupting times in the wake of the pandemic: Dispositional time attitudes, time perception and temporal focus.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has majorly disrupted many aspects of people's lives, provoking psychosocial distress among students. People's positive and negative attitudes towards the past, present and future were a dispositional pre-COVID-19 reality. Faced with a pandemic, people have reported disruptions in the speed of passing time. People can shift their attention more towards the past, present or future when major changes in society occur. These aspects of psychological time would be key to understanding the quality of psychosocial adjustment to the pandemic. We hypothesized that dispositional time attitudes impact psychosocial distress because they would trigger situational changes in our time perception and temporal focus. Methods: One hundred and forty-four university students in Uruguay responded to self-report questionnaires online while in-person classes were cancelled. Students reported on shifts in temporal focus, changes in time awareness and dispositional time attitudes. Reactive psychological, social and learning environment distress were reported. Results: Students reported substantial changes in time perception and temporal focus. A correlation matrix showed significant relationships between time attitudes, focus and awareness. For example, psychological distress was correlated with negative time attitudes, slower passage of time, boredom, blurred sense of time and shifting focus to the past. Mediation models were derived. The indirect effect of time attitudes on psychological distress was significant through past focus. Discussion: Dispositional time attitudes would impact students' capacity to cope with the pandemic. Situational shifts in temporal focus and perception were prevalent and can be viewed as temporal coping mechanisms in the wake of powerful societal change. Our mediation models showed that those with negative time attitudes experienced more psychological distress because they shifted their attention to the past. Future directions for research and practical implications are discussed.

Temporal disorientations and distortions during isolation.

Understanding how the brain maps time is central to neuroscience, behavior, psychology, and cognition. Just as in spatial navigation, self-positioning in a temporal cognitive map depends on numerous factors that are both exogenous and endogenous (e.g. time of day and experienced durations, respectively). The deprivation of external temporal landmarks can greatly reduce the ability of participants to orient in time and to formulate an adequate endogenous representation of time. However, this area of investigation in humans shows a great paucity of empirical data. This article aims at unearthing some of the experimental work that has systematically explored how humans' awareness of time is affected by varying degrees of isolation protocols. The assessment of the literature on the impact of isolation (broadly construed) on human temporalities may contribute to contextualizing the temporal distortions and disorientations reported during the ongoing worldwide pandemic Covid-19.

How British Columbia school superintendents spend their time

Every school district in North America has a superintendent. But what occupies their time? That was the core question of this project. This study looked at how school superintendents in British Columbia, Canada, spent their time during the school year. This study explored the demographics of superintendents and their school districts, the level of responsibility that superintendents reported on various leadership and management tasks, the time spent in key areas of their work, and their perceptions of their ability to control their time and the impact of COVID-19 on their work.All superintendents in British Columbia were asked to complete a questionnaire for this study. Of the 60 superintendents, 59 participated (98%). This survey was conducted via email in the spring of 2021. Nine key themes were established through the research:*Superintendent gender has an impact*Student population size matters - At least until about 6,000 students *Some stunning numbers with experience, but little impact on their work *Superintendents are drawn into the urgent*Superintendents are committed to being educational leaders*Learning leader vs. community leader*Boards matter*Control of time is a matter of perspective*COVID-19 created complexity and opportunity. BC School Districts have been lauded as some of the top performing in the world. This study showed the complexity of the work of their top leaders and the commitment of the superintendents of BC to be educational leaders for their students, staff, and community. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

Collective health in times of COVID-19. A scalar model for understanding the impacts on rurality in Urabá, Antioquia, Colombia, 2020

Introduction. This research was developed in the framework of the Observatory on rurality and peace in pandemic and post-pandemic contexts, this paper presents advances of interdisciplinary research and reflections about collective health in the Antioquian subregion of Urabá, focused on rural contexts. Objective. To identify the integration/exclusion dynamics related to collective health in rural territories of the Antioquian subregion of Urabá, in the pandemic for COVID-19 context. Methods. The Scalar Model of Collective Health in Times of Pandemic was used as a tool for questioning epidemiological data and territorial readings, in dialogue with the voices of inhabitants and leaders of local social organizations. Results. Results allow to identify the dynamics of the pandemic in terms of integration/exclusion of the municipalities of the sub-region;the overlapping logics of legality and illegality in the territories;the amplification of impacts in territories with historical burdens of inequality;and the great limitations to achieve an effective level of governance in health. Conclusions. The greatest limitation has been the absence of differentiated data for the rural areas, ethnic origin, and precision about the contagion origin. This analysis leads us to affirm that pandemic for COVID-19 reveals structural imbalances, especially in the rural areas of Colombia. © 2021 Pontificia Universidad Javeriana. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the Mediating Effect of Risk Perception on the Relationship Between Time Perception and Mental Health of College Students During the COVID-19 Epidemic.

Background: COVID-19 has had a wide impact on the mental health of college students. This study aims to explore the relationship between time perception, risk perception, and the mental health of college students during COVID-19 through a questionnaire survey. Subjects: One thousand two hundred and eighteen college students, 449 male and 769 female, who studied online during the COVID-19 epidemic were selected. Methods: Time Perception Scale, Risk Perception Scale, and SCL-90 were used to investigate the relationship using correlation analysis. Results: During the COVID-19 period, mental health problems of college students were widespread, and 65.93% of college students reported moderate to severe mental health problems. The correlation analysis showed that risk perception, time perception, and the mental health of college students were significantly related. Risk perception played a partial mediating role between present enjoyment and mental health, and risk perception played a partial mediating role between future time perception and mental health. Conclusion: In the case of sudden public crises, we should pay close attention to the mental health of college students, adjust their attitude toward the present and the future, and pay attention to their perception of risk so as to improve their mental health level under crisis.

The effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on sleep time perception: Comparing actigraphy and sleep diary measures.

COVID-19 has become a long-term problem, and global pandemic conditions may persist for years. Researchers are providing mounting evidence of relationships between COVID-19 lockdowns and sleep problems. However, few studies have investigated the impact of home isolation on sleep time perception, especially in comparable social isolation situations with similar pressures. Subjective sleep time perception parameters were derived from sleep diaries. Objective parameters were derived from actigraphy. Subjective and objective data were obtained between February 17 and February 27, 2020 from 70 adult participants subject to COVID-19 related lockdown provisions in China. We divided participants into a home stayers (HS) group (subject to full stay-at home orders) and an area-restricted workers (ARW) group (permitted to work at their nearby workplaces). The HS group demonstrated significantly delayed actigraphy-defined sleep onset time compared to self-reported sleep onset time; this effect was absent in the ARW group. Between-group differences in actigraphy-defined sleep onset time and significant between-group differences for actigraphy-defined and self-reported wake-up time were observed. HS group participants also presented significantly delayed actigraphy-defined wake-up time compared with self-reported wake-up time. No significant effect was found on total sleep time perception. Moreover, sleep/wake time misperception were found to be associated with daylight exposure and physical activity levels respectively. To the extent they are generalizable, these results suggest that lockdown restrictions can affect sleep onset and wake-up time perception but not total sleep time perception. Public health policy should consider such effects in the present pandemic situation and in future emergent public health situations.